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At first, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "serious consequences" last August if Russia's president carried on hindering peace talks, Trump ultimately enacted major restrictions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially hindered the Russian leader's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

But, via his newly presented 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by both nations' representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the initiative effectively undermine that essential autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate background, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's soil will appease the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about occupying a destroyed swath of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to eliminate it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in position the currently separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unable to occupy in exceeding a decade of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions critically undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these positions, leaving Russian forces a open way to the capital in case he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate renewed conflict easier for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the size of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the plan asserts: "Any radical belief system and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the plan includes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a return of captured land in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should the international community believe Putin on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. Although the plan threatens a "immediate joint armed reaction" in case Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars range from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the security presence, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from restoring his reduced troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "major, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a military response. Yet different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not