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Amid the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.