Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
